portalcasting package provides a model development, deployment, and evaluation system for forecasting how ecological systems change through time, with a focus on a widely used long-term study of mammal population and community dynamics, the Portal Project. It combines the Portal Data Repository and portalr data management package in a pipeline to automate weekly forecasting. Forecasts are archived on GitHub and Zenodo. The Portal Forecasting website provides a dynamic view of the results.
portalcasting’s functions are also portable, allowing users to set up a fully-functional replica repository on a local or remote machine. This facilitates development and testing of new models via a sandbox approach.
portalcasting package is deployed for use within the Portal Predictions repository, providing the underlying R code to populate the directory with up-to-date data, analyze the data, produce new forecasts, generate new output figures, and render a new version of the website. All of the code underlying the forecasting functionality has been migrated over from the predictions repository, which contains the code executed by the continuous integration. Having relocated the code here, the
portalcasting package is the location for active development of the model set and additional functionality.
We leverage a software container to enable reproducibility of the predictions repository. Presently, we use a Docker image of the software environment to create a container for running the code. The image is automatically rebuilt when there is a new
portalcasting release, tagged with both the
latest and version-specific (
vX.X.X) tags, and pushed to DockerHub.
latest image is updated with releases, the current master branch code in
portalcasting is not necessarily always being executed within the predictions repository. A development image (
dev) is built from the master branch of
portalcasting at every push to facilitate testing and should not be considered stable.
The API is moderately well defined at this point, but is still evolving.
You can install the package from github:
If you wish to spin up a local container from the
portalcasting image (to ensure that you are using a copy of the current production environment for implementation of the
portalcasting pipeline), you can run
sudo docker pull weecology/portalcasting
from a shell on a computer with Docker installed.
Get started with the “how to set up a Portal Predictions directory” vignette.
We welcome any contributions in form of models or pipeline changes.
This project is developed in active collaboration with DAPPER Stats.
The motivating study—the Portal Project—has been funded nearly continuously since 1977 by the National Science Foundation, most recently by DEB-1622425 to S. K. M. Ernest. Much of the computational work was supported by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation’s Data-Driven Discovery Initiative through Grant GBMF4563 to E. P. White.
We thank Heather Bradley for logistical support, John Abatzoglou for assistance with climate forecasts, and James Brown for establishing the Portal Project.